For those of you who think awards shows are just for famous, rich people congratulating other famous rich people for doing great but not usually revolutionary work, then you would be totally right. And the Oscars are the king of those award shows, with offices across the nation betting on winners and people at home waiting to see if someone trips or is a little too tipsy during their speech. Me, I just like being able to try and guess what the Hollywood elite are thinking — it’s a hobby.
So I am going to write up my predictions a little differently than most — with a format I liked to call “Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda.” Coulda films are the ones that might win in an upset, Woulda films are the one’s likely to take the prize, and Shoulda are the films that, in my opinion, actually deserve the little golden statue. Since there are a ton of technical categories I can never get right (and also no one really cares about outside of those industries) I am going to only tackle the big categories.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Coulda: Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Woulda: Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Shoulda: Denzel Washington – Fences
There is a lot of buzz that Casey Affleck is going to win this award because he got the Gloden Globe and the BAFTA award in the same category. However, the re-surfacing of his 2010 lawsuit concerning several incidents of sexual harrassment might hurt his chances. Additionally, Denzel Washington’s performance was sublime, and he’s earned it. Ryan Gosling might be more in the running if he stopped looking at his feet while he danced.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Coulda: Dev Patel – Lion
Woulda: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Shoulda: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
This is a loser category this year. Dev Patel is literally the star of Lion and he’s in the supporting category. Our other options are Jeff Bridges in a movie no one saw, Michael Shannon in a movie no one saw, and the annoying teen from Manchester by the Sea. The shining star in this field of meh is Mahershala Ali, and honestly if he doesn’t win, you know this was rigged because his performance is all anyone talks about this year.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Coulda: Natalie Portman – Jackie
Woulda: Emma Stone – La La Land
Shoulda: Emma Stone – La La Land
There’s only one clear winner in this category this year, and that would be Emma Stone. She far outshone her co-star Ryan Gosling and was just generally stellar in the role. Meryl Streep isn’t going to get another surprise Oscar, and since no one saw Elle or Loving, it’s unlikely Isabelle Huppert and Ruth Negga stand a chance. Natalie Portman could scoot in on nostalgia alone, but it’s unlikely.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Coulda: Naomi Harris – Moonlight
Woulda: Viola Davis – Fences
Shoulda: Viola Davis – Fences
Sometimes, the person that will win should win, and Viola Davis has deserved an Oscar since 2012, when Meryl Streep unbelievably beat her out for best leading actress. It is weird she’s not in that category this time around, given she shares more or less the same amount of screen time as her co-star, but maybe they thought she’d be more likely to win as supporting.
Best Picture
Coulda: Manchester by the Sea or Fences
Woulda: La La Land
Shoulda: Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea or Fences would be huge upsets if they did occur, but they also got the most screen time in the mainstream (save, of course, for Hidden Figures which stands no chance). La La Land earned so much (mostly undeserved) praise that it’s likely going to snag many of the big awards, including Best Picture. However, since it fails the premise of being a movie musical, I’m hoping cooler heads prevail and Moonlight gets the recognition it deserves. Not only as an important piece of art that looks at the intersection between the LGBTQ and Black communities, but because it is a genuinely a masterwork that leaves most audiences in awe.
Best Director
Coulda: Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Woulda: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Shoulda: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
The director category is always a tough one, since it is a lot more about connections and popularity than most of the other categories. Damien Chazelle’s probably got this one in the bag because he basically wrote a love letter to Hollywood, but Denis Villeneuve and Barry Jenkins are two very strong contenders for the award, and I would not be surprised if either wins out to give some acclaim to something other than La La Land.
Best Animated Feature
Coulda: Zootopia
Woulda: Moana
Shoulda: Kubo and the Two Strings
I’m sure The Red Turtle is gorgeous but no one saw it except for dedicated fans, so that’s totally out of the running here. Kubo and the Two Strings is not Studio Laika’s best work but it is an impressive feat and will likely win the technical awards. Moana merges excellent story with stellar music, and while Zootopia is more topical, the fact that it isn’t as recent in voters’ minds means it’ll probably lose.
Best Documentary Feature
Coulda: Fire at Sea
Woulda: 13th
Shoulda: 13th and I Am Not Your Negro
No one seems to like this category but I always find it fascinating. 13th caused a huge stir and since Ava DuVernay got passed over for Selma, they’re going to pay her back in this round. The fact that it is on Netflix and got a ton of press also helps. I Am Not Your Negro is also incredible, though with a much lower release profile. Fire at Sea is the most topical, as it is about immigrants passing through the island of Lampedusa on thier way to a better life, but it also had very little buzz around it.
Best Foreign Language Film
Coulda: A Man Called Ove
Woulda: The Salesman
Shoulda: The Salesman
I will be very, very surprised if The Salesman loses. The tale of a husband and wife putting on a production of “Death of a Salesman” when things get complicated at home. It also helps that director Asghar Farhadi will not be attending the ceremony for political reasons.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Coulda: Hidden Figures
Woulda: Moonlight
Shoulda: Moonlight and Fences
I loved Hidden Figures, but it’s not the strongest entry in this category if only because it is more family oriented. Moonlight is probably going to get this one, since it is so emotionally powerful. Fences also has a shot, but it’s written more like a play than a film, so that might cost it some crucial votes.
Best Original Screenplay
Coulda: Manchester by the Sea
Woulda: La La Land
Shoulda: The Lobster
If you haven’t had a chance to see The Lobster, you are definitley not alone. It’s a weird, surrealist film about the nature of love and commitment but ultimately, it’s better written than most of the films on the list. Manchester by the Sea is well written and heartbreaking, so it has a chance of knocking the ever popular La La Land from this category. It’s unlikely though.
Best Original Soundtrack
Coulda: Jackie or Lion
Woulda: La La Land
Shoulda: La La Land
Why Arrival didn’t get nominated in this category is, to me, ridiculous but working with what we have, the La La Land soundtrack is going to win. The music is amazing, and as a stand alone soundtrack, it works much better than as a film. Jackie and Lion are fine but, really, it can’t go to anyone else but La La Land.
Best Original Song
Coulda: Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls
Woulda: “City of Stars” – La La Land
Shoulda: “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
La La Land had a great song, and since it’s going to win all the other awards, it’s probably going to get this one too. However, we shouldn’t discount the Lin Manuel Miranda train, and the hype around Hamilton/Moana could elevate it to a win. The only other real contender is that damn catchy Justin Timberlake song from Trolls — try getting that ear worm out of your head.
